How chance actually works, 18+

Nobody is due a win. Everybody is a sample size.

Clover Gem explains the arithmetic underneath prize draws, sweepstakes and reward games: odds per entry, how winners are drawn, daily wheels, bonus counters, and the stories people tell themselves about luck. Every claim comes with the maths behind it, and none of it is a promise.

Chance simulator

Runs locally
2.0%
100
—At least one
—Median entries
—Longest wait

Each square is one of the first fifty simulated people. Green means a result inside the entry limit. The dark squares played exactly the same odds and got nothing, which is what chance looks like.

The lexicon

The words behind the draw

Open any entry for how the mechanic actually works and where people misread it.

Myths

Three things almost everyone gets wrong about chance

I

One percent is not one in a hundred tries

With a one percent chance per entry, about thirty-seven people in every hundred who enter a hundred times still get nothing. The figure describes each entry, not the run.

II

Nobody is ever due

An honest draw has no memory. A long run without a result does not make the next one more likely, however strongly it feels that it should.

III

More entries only move things in proportion

Doubling your entries roughly doubles a small chance, within whatever limit the rules set. It never turns a long shot into a likely one, and it is never a reason to spend.

Got a question?

Write to us. We reply within 48 hours.

[email protected]
Privacy

Privacy Policy

Last updated 1 week ago

This page explains what information Clover Gem collects, what we do with it, and how to make us stop. It covers the website at clovergem.com and the emails we send.

Who we are

Clover Gem is an independent site that explains how chance works in prize draws, sweepstakes and reward games. We do not run draws, we do not award prizes, and we are not connected to any operator whose mechanics we describe. Contact us at [email protected].

Email addresses: how we get yours

We only hold an email address if you gave it to us. That happens in one of two ways:

We record the date, time and page where a sign-up was made, and the moment it was confirmed, so we can show you where a subscription came from if you ever ask.

What we send

Subscribers receive a weekly email with a new lexicon entry, a common myth about chance taken apart, and promotions that are currently open to enter. Those emails carry commercial content, including promotions run by third parties. We never send a message claiming you have won something, and we never ask for a payment, a card number, an account password or a verification code by email.

How to stop receiving email

Every email carries an unsubscribe link at the bottom. One click is enough and there is no confirmation step. You can also write to [email protected] with the word "unsubscribe" and we will remove you by hand.

Unsubscribes are processed immediately and always within 72 hours. After that the address stays on a suppression list, which exists only so that you are never added again by mistake. You can ask us to delete that record too.

Who else sees your address

Your address is stored with the email platform we use to send messages, which processes it on our behalf and under contract. Beyond that processor, we do not sell your address, we do not rent it, and we do not pass it to advertisers for their own use.

What else the site collects

The simulator on the front page runs entirely in your browser. No result it produces is recorded or sent anywhere.

Cookies

The site uses functional cookies needed for pages to display correctly. Blocking cookies in your browser costs you no content on this site.

Your rights

You can ask what data we hold about you, ask for it to be corrected, ask for a copy, or ask for it to be deleted. Write to [email protected] and we will respond within 30 days. You do not have to give a reason.

Age

This site and our emails are intended for adults aged 18 or over. We do not knowingly collect information from children. If you believe a child has subscribed, tell us and we will remove the address immediately.

What our numbers mean

Where we quote a probability, it is either arithmetic you can check yourself or a figure published by an operator, and we always say which. Our simulator uses plain independent chance. Real promotions have entry caps, multiple prizes and their own rules, so treat it as a demonstration of how probability behaves, not a model of any particular draw.

Not a reason to spend

Nothing here encourages spending money in order to improve your chances, and we publish no advice on what is worth entering. More entries change the arithmetic only in proportion, and only within the limits the rules allow. If spending on chance-based rewards has stopped feeling like a choice, please talk to a professional rather than a website.

Accuracy of what we publish

We describe how promotions and reward mechanics commonly work. Operators change terms, promotions close and regional rules differ. Always read the official rules of a promotion itself, which is the only version that binds anyone. Nothing here is legal or financial advice, and nothing here is a prediction of any outcome.

Trademarks

Brand names, game titles and trademarks belong to their owners and appear here for identification and commentary only.

Changes to this page

If this policy changes, the new version appears here with a fresh timestamp at the top. Continued use of the site after a change means you accept the revised version.

Contact

Anything at all, including data requests and unsubscribes: [email protected]

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